Lancaster landlord says pubs face uncertain future amid energy and cost of living crisis

Tim Tomlinson, chair of the local Pubwatch scheme and landlord of the White Cross, Merchants and Stonewell Tap, also urged people to 'shop local', to keep the money within the local economy.

Tim said in general, bookings over the festive season were promising - possibly as a result of people looking to enjoy a 'proper' Christmas for the first time since before the Covid pandemic hit.

But he fears January and February could be an extremely difficult time for the hospitality trade.

"It's a massive concern," he said. "Even with the support in place, most of us are facing doubled energy prices from a year ago. One of my premises is two-and-a-half times.

"We are maybe down 10% and costs are up by 20%. It's a lot tougher now than it was during Covid.”

Tim's concerns come as industry bosses warn many pubs and breweries could be forced to shut for good.

A new report by Frontier Economics, produced for the British Beer and Pub Association, shows that energy bills returning to their regular rate after March would put pubs and brewers at a loss of 20% on average.

Businesses have benefited from an energy bill relief scheme but the scheme finishes at the end of March.

The report showed energy costs are the biggest threat to their viability and “would be even more lethal” when the relief scheme ends.

"If we don't get the [energy bill relief] support continued it will be a massive hit,” Tim said.

"If it was just that element, hospitality would be struggling but getting on with it, but we have the cost of food, drink and delivery charges going up as well.

"We are also aware that our customers are struggling as well, and so we are not wanting to increase our prices too much. It's like a perfect storm, and we have to find a balance."

This week a Morecambe pub also announced it is offering free food to encourage more customers as the cost of living continues to bite.

Gemma Gardner, who runs The York Hotel in Morecambe with husband Gareth, said: "We’re struggling with our bills but so are our customers as well and so we’re being squeezed at both ends. We’ve even started offering free food to encourage customers to come in and buy drinks.

"If it’s this bad now I dread to think what it will be like when the energy relief scheme ends come April.”

Tim said fellow landlords were largely hopeful that the Christmas season would be fruitful.

"We have got some good bookings for December," he said. "Maybe people are wanting to go out and enjoy themselves for the first time in a few years.

"People are broadly positive about the next few weeks, but we are all fearing it will drop off a cliff in January, and I have no doubt there will be some businesses going under.

"There's quite a few new businesses opening in Lancaster which is a positive but everyone is concerned about the squeeze.

"We just hope people will spend their money with independent local companies, so the money comes back into the system locally."

Tim Black, associate director in Frontier Economics’ retail and consumer team, said: "Recent economic shocks of Covid, Brexit and the war in Ukraine have put sustained pressure on businesses.

"Our analysis shows the pub and brewery sector is facing a combination of surging costs – primarily energy, but also raw materials and wages – and falling demand, as consumers reduce their spending in the face of severe cost of living pressures.

"While there are different impacts across businesses and uncertainty on the outlook, the underlying economics of the sector makes absorbing these shocks incredibly difficult – and some firms will struggle to survive.”