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Ghost town fears over uni exodus
House prices will collapse in some parts of Lancaster if soaring university tuition fees force more students to live at home.
That is the prediction from student property manager John Sanderson, who says a new survey by mutual insurer LV outlines the danger to the city’s economy.
The Student Towns report, complied for the insurer by Nelson Research, claims that Lancaster could lose 4,874 students from the current year’s total of 13,186. The forecast 37 per cent drop is the 11th highest in the country. The worst affected university cities are expected to be Newcastle upon Tyne and Lincoln, with falls of 52 per cent and 43 per cent.
The LV report argues that 47 per cent of students will live at home by 2020 as they and their parents seek to save money. Currently only 21 per cent of full time students live at home but £9,000 annual tuition fees will massively increase the amount of debt they have to take on.
Researchers expect the student exodus to begin in 2012. The report adds: “Property values in many student towns affected will decline with rental prices plummeting. Crime and criminal damage will increase as a result, and many properties will become vacant and even derelict.”
See the Lancaster Guardian (22-04-11) for full story.
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Comments
There are 13 comments to this article
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wildlancaster
Thursday, April 28, 2011 at 04:25 PMwith regards to your web vote could you not have an option for lets hope less students do come?
ami3214
Wednesday, April 27, 2011 at 01:49 PMlets hope the story is true. This may reduce the hyper inflated lancaster house prices alowing local workers to buy reasonable properties and help regenerate the lost communities that have been depressed by large amounts of seasonal transient students.
noelpne
Tuesday, April 26, 2011 at 06:21 PMAnother article in this paper relates that in the tenure of the current Vice Chancellor, there have been 4,500 new residential rooms ( individual flatlets ?) built in the grounds of Bailrigg in the last nine years. Whilst some of these have been built to accomodate student needs on then-existing courses, others will have been built in relation to new courses. But all of them would have an impact on any Rental sector of the existing Housing Stock of the City. Surely, as the University Authority have had to apply for receive Planning Permission for all that - a depression in the value of Terraced & Houses of Multiple Occupation was easily forecast.
Effervescent
Tuesday, April 26, 2011 at 01:09 PMInteresting debate but the base story lacks journalistic credibility given the source, cited as "student accommodation manager" ? Isn't this the guy whose company and operation were taken off him by the bank and handed to accountants to operate? Some might suggest there is an element of vested interest in being a little bitter and twisted and seeking to undermine the new owners of his former block............................
TheoFacts
Monday, April 25, 2011 at 10:59 AMThere are different ways of interpreting statistics, by quoting the trend of increased student numbers since the economic down turn took hold in 2008, I was merely questioning the statement “less money equals less students” If one looks back further still to gauge the effects of the Higher Education Act 2004 which took effect for courses starting 2006-07 allowing universities to charge variable fees of up to £3000 a year, you will note this didn’t halt the year on year growth in the full time higher education numbers which we have seen over the last 10 years. Granted the application numbers for courses commencing this September, unquestionably included eligible students wishing to start a university course before the introduction of the higher rate fees, but the evidence of one year’s intake does not provide any trend analysis, on the contrary perhaps the data over the last 3 year and 10 year period is not quite so “elementary and misleading” So for the future, youth unemployment stands at near record levels with more than one in five young people currently out of work, this number also includes recent graduates however a degree still improves the life chances of young people. A higher education qualification can lead to increased earning potential, and presents a wider range of opportunities and more rewarding careers, despite the increased tuition fees graduates can still expect to earn more than people who did not go to university and certain chosen professions will always require degree level qualifications. It would appear, are still short of evidence to predict that Lancaster will become a ghost town.
flatnose
Monday, April 25, 2011 at 01:35 AMTheofacts statistics, although on first glance impressive, do not hold water under scrutiny. According to UCAS, national applications are only up in in 2011 to avoid the rises in student fees in 2012. (Guardian Online 310111) As, according to the Telegraph, (250411) the cost of a degree is set to rise 55% to £48,500 in 2012. These expenses occurring while the nations standard of living is predicted to fall drastically due to increasing inflation and stagnant wages. (Mervyn King, Bank of England 24012011) Common sense dictates that, due to the latter pressures, there will be fewer students in the future, that these students will have less disposable income and as a result less money flowing into Lancaster businesses. I predict that Lancaster University, already being forced to make redundancies due to a withdrawal of government funding, will attempt to accommodate as many students on campus as possible in order to maximise profits. This will result in increased competition between the University and the private landlord for student tenants. Theofacts holds up Lancaster University's reputation as a defence against a drop in student numbers. However, let us not forget the student population of the University of Cumbria which does not have the equivalent kudos of Lancaster University with which to defend itself. Perhaps, as Theofacts states, there is no need to panic just yet, On the other hand, I remain convinced, despite Theofacts elementary and misleading statistical analysis, that strong current evidence exists which indicates lean times for Lancaster landlords and local business in the near future.
Young&Tired
Sunday, April 24, 2011 at 10:03 PMI do appreciate TheoFacts' exhortation to not panic. He is, of course, absolutely right in this - we cannot predict with concrete certainty what impact these changes are going to have as they are brought in over the coming months. It is nice to get to read a comment on this website that tries to calm things down rather than wind people up. TheoFacts certainly wouldn't be able to get a job working for the Lancaster Guardian! (And I mean that as a compliment.) Lancaster University is rightly renowned both nationally and internationally, and can perhaps more justifiably charge tuition fees of £9000 per year - in fact, I can see how NOT charging the maximum might make potential students doubt the quality of the educational offer in our fine city! On this issue, I can only speak from my own perspective. I got my three As at A Level, and came to Lancaster University, graduating in 2006 with a 1st class honours degree in English Literature. So I flatter myself that I am moderately intelligent, and the kind of person who should be encouraged to attend university. I grew up in Hertfordshire, and was keen to move a good distance from home to get the full university experience of at least semi-independence. My parents aren't poor, but aren't exactly rolling in cash either. I have been brought up to believe that debt, living beyond your means, and owing money to people, is not a desirable condition. If, then, I was faced with graduating with debts of at least £27000 (and that just for tuition fees - let alone paying for my accommodation, food, books, etc.) I would not have come to Lancaster to study. I wouldn't even have considered it an option. So this change would have lost me as a student at least. I can't believe I'm the only person who would be put off coming to study at Lancaster by the exorbitant level of these fees. As TheoFacts says, we have to wait and see what happens. But I fear that the basic premise of the LV report will be proved correct: that the increase in tuition fees will put some people off going to university at all, and those who do undertake study will be looking to save money wherever they can - including on accommodation.
TinLancaster
Sunday, April 24, 2011 at 04:37 PMStudent accommodation is generally appalling. I know people who have had water (of the less desirable kind) dripping through roofs, no heating, infestations of insects, dry rot, damp, you name it. The same people are then treated like dirt, charged for stupid things like shower curtains, banned from having locks and subjected to regular inspection. It is ludicrous that a house which would need to be presentable to raise private sector rent of 675pcm is rented out in such condition to four students at 250pcm each. The problem here isn't just a reduction in students as a whole - its a reduction in students that will chose to CONTINUE living away from home during secondthird years - or students that chose a University with full three-year accommodation. Landlords need to get it sorted. And the council needs to get it sorted as well to become less reliant on the Unis.
TheoFacts
Sunday, April 24, 2011 at 01:08 PMAnother informative comment from Flatnose? ............There is no current evidence to suggest that less money will equate to less students. Since the global financial crisis took hold in 2008 UK universities have actually seen record numbers of students applying and starting higher education in the UK. Some more FACTS for you................... In 2009 a record 477,277 students took up a higher education place at UK universities this was rise of 5.6% on the previous year. In January of 2010 the number of full-time undergraduate applications jumped 22.9 percent to 570,556 as compared with 2009. In January of this year there had been nearly 600,000 applications for degree courses starting in September of this year a 5.1% increase on last year. So you can see that “Less” money does not always mean “Less” students. On closer reading of the LV Cheap Publicity Stunt, it’s really interesting to note that the survey cohort were actually “current” “recent” and “prospective” Higher Education students and their parents. It's far from clear how surveying “current” or “recent” students can predict the “future” likelihood of students living at home. As before Property and Business owners in Lancaster, no need to PANIC just yet.
TheoFacts
Sunday, April 24, 2011 at 12:25 PMAnother informative comment from Flatnose? ............There is no current evidence to suggest that less money will equate to less students. Since the global financial crisis took hold in 2008 UK universities have actually seen record numbers of students applying and starting higher education in the UK. Some more FACTS for you................... In 2009 a record 477,277 students took up a higher education place at UK universities this was rise of 5.6% on the previous year. In January of 2010 the number of full-time undergraduate applications jumped 22.9 percent to 570,556 as compared with 2009. In January of this year there had been nearly 600,000 applications for degree courses starting in September of this year a 5.1% increase on last year. So you can see that “Less” money does not always mean “Less” students. On closer reading of the LV Cheap Publicity Stunt, it’s really interesting to note that the survey cohort were actually “current” “recent” and “prospective” Higher Education students and their parents. It's far from clear how surveying “current” or “recent” students can predict the “future” likelihood of students living at home. As before Property and Business owners in Lancaster, no need to PANIC just yet.
TheoFacts
Sunday, April 24, 2011 at 11:45 AMAnother informative comment from Flatnose? ............There is no current evidence to suggest that less money will equate to less students. Since the global financial crisis took hold in 2008 UK universities have actually seen record numbers of students applying and starting higher education in the UK. Some more FACTS for you................... In 2009 a record 477,277 students took up a higher education place at UK universities this was rise of 5.6% on the previous year. In January of 2010 the number of full-time undergraduate applications jumped 22.9 percent to 570,556 as compared with 2009. In January of this year there had been nearly 600,000 applications for degree courses starting in September of this year a 5.1% increase on last year. So you can see that “Less” money does not always mean “Less” students. On closer reading of the LV Cheap Publicity Stunt, it’s really interesting to note that the survey cohort were actually “current” “recent” and “prospective” Higher Education students and their parents. It's far from clear how surveying “current” or “recent” students can predict the “future” likelihood of students living at home. As before Property and Business owners in Lancaster, no need to PANIC just yet.
flatnose
Sunday, April 24, 2011 at 12:41 AMLess money available = less students = less rental demand.
TheoFacts
Friday, April 22, 2011 at 09:21 PMSensationalist or informative? Predictions that Lancaster could become ‘ghost town’ as a result of Lancaster university charging the higher rate fee of £9000 per year, as usual with such news articles they are sensationalist rather than informative, This is the same headline which is being repeated across England and Wales long before any real evidence is available to correctly predict the lasting effects of increased higher education fees. One wonders how representative the LV= Home Insurance survey actually is, the survey was based on a mere 1000 students and parents, the survey findings states that half of the youngsters “planning” to go to university will now study locally and choose not to live in student accommodation, key word being “planning” have these individuals actually applied to university and secured places? Looking at the timing of this survey one would assume not. It is important to remember that Lancaster University currently attracts over 1,500 international students from over 100 different countries it is extremely unlikely that the LV survey included any “potential” international students or parents of the same, the international demographic are currently paying the higher fees anyway. With reference to the full article and the comments by a certain Mr Sanderson it’s disappointing that this self claimed investor and property manager in Lancaster’s student accommodation market is choosing not to focus on the positive aspects of a “Lancaster” University Education. Some facts....Lancaster is in the top ten in all three national league tables for the first time. Ranking 10th in the Times - FACT 8th in the Independent’s Complete University Guide - FACT 6th in the Guardian League table - FACT Lancaster University has been ranked 124 in the world top 200 universities - FACT With high scores for student satisfaction and graduate prospects in The Independent’s Complete University Guide 2011 sees Lancaster at 8th place out of 115 institutions in the UK - FACT. Leaving home is still very much part of the UK university experience and has always represented a cost even in the days of maintenance grants. It is unlikely that the dramatic hike in fees for courses commencing in September 2012 will affect this aspect of the student choice, especially in a city with a successful University as Lancaster. One could argue that the housing in the areas highlighted by Mr Sanderson may even see increased demand as a more affordable option, verses the cost of travelling from the local cities such as Liverpool or Manchester, the price of a local bus pass to get onto campus does not quite compare ever increasing train fares from the aforementioned locations, living on campus doesn’t come cheap and the experience of sharing a traditional student house is still very much part of UK student living experience. Students and parents are likely to become even more selective of where they buy their higher education, faced with choices such as spending £9,000 per annum to study at a university which achieves a ranking of 6 in The Guardian University Guide as in the case of Lancaster, or studying locally with an example of Liverpool at Liverpool John Moore’s who rank a 109th in the same league table, what is for sure is that students and parents will become more and more discerning in their choices. Will students really stay at home to study? Most students have long had this option and have long rejected it. Property and business owners in Lancaster should not PANIC just yet.... on the predications of a “half full glass person”
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